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Commentary iMGP DBi Hedge Strategy ETF Fourth Quarter 2023 Commentary

During the quarter, the iMGP DBi Hedge Strategy ETF gained 4.05% at NAV and 3.90% at price versus the Morningstar Long-Short Equity Category benchmark gain of 5.99%. For the full year, the ETF was up 7.91% at NAV and 7.24% at price, compared to a 10.13% gain for the benchmark.

Performance quoted represents past performance and does not guarantee future results. The investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate so that an investor’s shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Current performance of the funds may be lower or higher than the performance quoted. To obtain standardized performance of the funds, and performance as of the most recently completed calendar month, please visit www.imgpfunds.com.

Quarterly Review

2023 turned out to be a humbling year for macro strategists. The taper is coming a year late, the economy never hit the windshield, and Powell might actually pull off the Immaculate Landing. 

And so the big surprise is that it turned out to be a great year for investors. Powell’s sudden rhetorical pivot in early November triggered a massive melt up in risk assets. In two months, the MSCI World delivered nearly two thirds of its 23.8% calendar year return, while bonds – down over 3% through October – finished up 5.7%. The Everything Rally appears to have been driven by both the widespread conclusion that the rate hike cycle was over, but also a desperate catch up for investors underweight equities and duration. By year end, the price moves implied far more aggressive easing in 2024 than either Central Banks or economists forecast.

As discussed extensively in these letters, the market consensus is rarely accurate and frustratingly unstable. Contrarian investors who nailed 2022 were often wrong-footed in 2023; assets that soared in 2023 were climbing out of a deep drawdown hole. The lesson of the past several years is that the unexpected happens with alarming regularity, and the spectrum of outcomes is far wider than we expect. Today, as investors breathe a sigh of relief that the worst of the rate hike cycle might be behind us, they soon may have to turn their attention to a laundry list of headwinds, from worsening geopolitical chaos to deepening sociopolitical fragmentation to uncontrolled fiscal largesse to persistent ripple effects from higher rates to things not yet on our plate of worries. In such a world, we encourage diversification and liquidity to help clients weather the coming years.

Positioning

Equities, excluding emerging markets, were accretive to performance; led by growth and value biased segments, which were largely dominated by technology and AI stocks. Expectations that interest rate cuts may be on the horizon, aka the Everything Rally, drove performance in most sectors this quarter, as further evidenced by Fund gains in currencies and 2-year Treasuries as well. Conversely, a short in 30-year Treasury futures detracted from performance.

Portfolio Characteristics

Net Asset Class Exposure (%)
US Equities20%
International Developed Equities28%
Emerging Market Equities9%
US Dollar8%
Fixed Income7%
Top 5 Holdings 
2 Yr Treasury20%
SOFR28%
EAFE9%
Nasdaq8%
S&P 5007%

Stay Informed

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DISCLOSURE

Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible.

Shares of any ETF are bought and sold at market price (not NAV), may trade at a discount or premium to NAV and are not individually redeemed from the funds. Brokerage commissions will reduce returns.

Because the Fund is not a hedge fund, the Fund will be limited in its ability to fully replicate hedge fund strategies due to regulatory requirements including limitations on leverage and liquidity of the Fund’s investments.  The Fund is non-diversified so it may invest a greater portion of its assets in the securities of a single issuer.  As a result, a decline in the value of an investment in a single issuer could cause the Fund’s overall value to decline to a greater degree than if the Fund held a more diversified portfolio.

The Fund should be considered highly leveraged and is suitable only for investors with high tolerance for investment risk. Futures contracts and forward contracts can be highly volatile, illiquid and difficult to value, and changes in the value of such instruments held directly or indirectly by the Fund may not correlate with the underlying instrument or reference assets, or the Fund’s other investments. Derivative instruments and futures contracts are subject to occasional rapid and substantial fluctuations. Taking a short position on a derivative instrument or security involves the risk of a theoretically unlimited increase in the value of the underlying instrument. Exposure to the commodities markets may subject the Fund to greater volatility than investments in traditional securities. Exposure to foreign currencies subjects the Fund to the risk that those currencies will change in value relative to the U.S. Dollar.

The Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expense must be considered carefully before investing.  The statutory and summary prospectuses contain this and other important information about the investment company and may be obtained by visiting www.imgpfunds.com.  Read it carefully before investing.

A commission may apply when buying or selling an ETF.

Diversification does not eliminate the risk of experiencing investment losses.

A basis point (bps) is a value equal to one one-hundredth of one percent (1/100th of 1%0

Each Morningstar Category Average represents a universe of Funds with similar investment objectives.

Index performance is not illustrative of fund performance.  An investment cannot be made directly in an index. 

A basis point equals one hundredth of a percent.

The Morningstar Lang Short Equity Category includes funds that seek to generate returns from two sources: exposure to the performance of equity markets and from stock selection – holding stocks they like in long positions and shorting stocks they don’t like in a short portfolio.

The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index is a measure of global investment grade, fixed-rate corporate debt. This multi-currency benchmark includes bonds from developed and emerging markets issuers within the industrial, utility and financial sectors.

The MSCI All Country World Free Index captures large and mid-cap representation across 23 Developed Markets and 23 Emerging Markets countries. With 2,491 constituents, the index covers approximately 85% of the global investable equity opportunity set.

iM Global Partner Fund Management, LLC  has ultimate responsibility for the performance of the iMGP Funds due to its responsibility to oversee the funds’ investment managers and recommend their hiring, termination, and replacement.

The iMGP Funds are Distributed by ALPS Distributors, Inc. LGE000279, Exp. 12/31/2024