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Commentary iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF Third Quarter 2023 Commentary

During the quarter, the iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF gained 4.38% at NAV and 4.60% at market price versus the SG CTA Index benchmark’s 1.78% return. Year-to-date, the ETF is down 0.66% at NAV and 0.72% at price, compared to a 1.79% gain for the benchmark.

Performance data quoted represents past performance. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The investment return and principal value of an investment will fluctuate so that an investor’s shares, when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost. Current performance of the fund may be lower or higher than the performance quoted. Short term performance is not a good indication of the fund’s future performance and should not be the sole basis for investing in the fund. Performance data current to the most recent month end may be obtained by visiting www.imgpfunds.com

Shares of any ETF are bought and sold at market price (not NAV), may trade at a discount or premium to NAV and are not individually redeemed from the Fund. Brokerage commissions will reduce returns. 

Quarterly Review

As discussed extensively in prior letters, this has been a humbling period for most market strategists. The taper trade was dead wrong. The “Year of the Bond” turned into the “Year of Cash.” The overnight banking crisis … was solved by morning. We’re still waiting for the “delayed impact” of higher rates. Nothing big broke.

For hedge funds, an added complication has been how to make money off “correct” calls. Nail “sticky inflation” – as did the CTA world — and good luck holding your positions through the Silicon Valley Bank/Credit Suisse bond market unwinds. Stock pickers who rationally concluded that higher rates would translate into higher returns in value stocks flat out missed the AI wave. For relative value investors, the long-awaited valuation convergence between non-US and US stocks has yet to materialize. 

For traditional investors, two big trades have worked this year: growth stocks and cash. Ironically, in January those were contradictory macro calls – i.e., higher rates should have been good for cash but bad for growth stocks. Then AI fever hit – and who cares about rates when you’re on the cusp of a new tech revolution? — and the Nasdaq popped 35% through September, pulling the S&P 500 with it. Outside the Magnificent Seven and a few others, the report card is dismal: most equity categories have underperformed cash, most bond categories are in the red, REITS are down, and the obvious inflation hedges — TIPS and gold – are not working for the second year in a row.

The great challenge is how to think about where we go from here. Our simple view is as follows: spending is addictive. Governments like to spend money because their voters (today) like it. Companies prefer to hire than fire.  Splurging on another vacation is a lot more fun than adding to a rainy day fund. Throw in structural issues like deglobalization, and all this suggests that inflation will be a tough nut to crack. For two years, many allocators have hoped that the surge was ephemeral; it might be time to battle plan for a very different world order.

Portfolio Positioning

The Fund gained 4.38% net over the quarter. Short exposures to interest rate futures across the US curve along with a short position in gold contributed significantly to the portfolio’s performance in Q3. An increase in oil exposure towards the tail end of the quarter was also accretive as Saudi Arabia and Russia cut global output. Conversely, net long positions in equities detracted from performance as global equities fell from the pressure of rising rates. A long euro versus yen position ended the quarter flat.

Portfolio Characteristics

Net Asset Class Exposure (%)
US Equities2%
International Developed Equities8%
Emerging Market Equities-3%
Currencies-19%
Commodities3%
Fixed Income-174%
Top 5 Holdings
2 Yr Treasury-49%
SOFR-49%
JPY/USD-41%
10 Yr Treasury-40%
EUR/USD22%

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DISCLOSURE

The funds’ investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. The statutory and summary prospectuses contain this and other important information about the investment company, and it may be obtained by calling 1-800-960-0188, or visiting imgpfunds.com. Read it carefully before investing.

Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible. Shares of any ETF are bought and sold at market price (not NAV), may trade at a discount or premium to NAV and are not individually redeemed from the funds. Brokerage commissions will reduce returns. The Fund is “non-diversified,” so it may invest a greater percentage of its assets in the securities of a single issuer. As a result, a decline in the value of an investment in a single issuer could cause the Fund’s overall value to decline to a greater degree than if the Fund held a more diversified portfolio.

The Fund should be considered highly leveraged and is suitable only for investors with high tolerance for investment risk. Futures contracts and forward contracts can be highly volatile, illiquid and difficult to value, and changes in the value of such instruments held directly or indirectly by the Fund may not correlate with the underlying instrument or reference assets, or the Fund’s other investments. Derivative instruments and futures contracts are subject to occasional rapid and substantial fluctuations. Taking a short position on a derivative instrument or security involves the risk of a theoretically unlimited increase in the value of the underlying instrument. Exposure to the commodities markets may subject the Fund to greater volatility than investments in traditional securities. Exposure to foreign currencies subjects the Fund to the risk that those currencies will change in value relative to the U.S. Dollar. By investing in the Subsidiary, the Fund is indirectly exposed to the risks associated with the Subsidiary’s investments. Fixed income securities, or derivatives based on fixed income securities, are subject to credit risk and interest rate risk.

A commission may apply when buying or selling an ETF.

Diversification does not eliminate the risk of experiencing investment losses.

The SG CTA Index is an index published by Société Générale that is designed to reflect the performance of a pool of Commodity Trading Advisor (CTAs) selected from larger managers that employ systematic managed futures strategies. The index is reconstituted annually.

The Morningstar Systematic Trend Category includes funds that mainly implement trend-following, price-momentum strategies by trading long and short liquid global futures, options, swaps and foreign exchange contracts.  Strategies invest across geographies and assets including equities, fixed income, commodities , currencies and more.

One basis point (bps) is a value equal to one one-hundredth  of a percent (1/100 of 1%)

Index performance is not illustrative of fund performance.  An investment cannot be made directly in an index. 

iM Global Partner Fund Management, LLC  has ultimate responsibility for the performance of the IMGP Funds due to its responsibility to oversee the funds’ investment managers and recommend their hiring, termination, and replacement.

The iMGP Funds are Distributed by ALPS Distributors, Inc.  LGE000227exp. 1/31/2024